Predictions

Here is my best guess at how the electoral map will shake out:


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

I think the Senate will go 50-50. Democrats will gain a few seats in the House but it will remain firmly under Republican control.

More Thoughts on How the Battleground States Break Down 

The Clinton campaign spent a huge amount of time and effort in Pennsylvania because, while the state is reliable, it is also crucial to Clinton’s success. If Clinton wins Pennsylvania, she sits at 252 electoral votes and only needs to win 18 more electoral votes with Michigan, Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Nevada, Iowa, and Arizona remaining. Here is a visual of the map with the assumption that Clinton takes Pennsylvania:


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

It is clear that if Clinton wins Pennsylvania, she has many options to 270.

Based on reports from the early vote in Nevada, it is almost certain to break for Clinton. I think Michigan is a safe bet for Clinton and that will put her over the top. To put it another way, Clinton could lose  Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Arizona and still win.


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
Clinton has leads in many states but it is still close enough that turnout matters. Even if you are in a safe state, it is still important to vote to make a statement for the future. If you care enough about politics to read this blog, I hope you get out and vote. See you all on the other side.
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